AMEC Symposium on Economic Uncertainty: Exploring Heightened Volatility at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Marketing Admin
Nov 13
4 min read

Key Themes: Deglobalization, Supply Chains, and Tariff-Driven Volatility

Central to the discussions is the surge in uncertainty, with the U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index spiking to levels like 687.94 on November 10, 2025, and global indexes hitting all-time highs amid trade tensions. Session 1 on trade will probe deglobalization risks, supply chain resilience, and implications for U.S. productivity, directly tying into President Trump's tariff hikes. Tariffs of 10-60% on imports, particularly from China, are amplifying volatility in AI and hardware sectors by raising costs for semiconductors and components, potentially spiking AI server prices by up to 75% and disrupting global innovation. This could hinder U.S. competitiveness, delay tech deployments, and affect investment in emerging technologies.

Financial markets (Session 2) may explore how uncertainty erodes liquidity and amplifies policy shocks, while Sessions 3 and 4 delve into firm/household behaviors and macroeconomic responses, questioning whether uncertainty acts as a demand shock and how monetary policy should adapt. Overall, the symposium highlights uncertainty's drag on productivity and investment, with 2025's elevated indexes—driven by tariffs, geopolitics, and fiscal debates—potentially reshaping economic outlooks.

10:00 AM: Introduction by Marco Del Negro (FRBNY).
10:05 AM–11:05 AM: Session 1: Trade in an Uncertain World, chaired by Julian Di Giovanni (FRBNY). Panelists: Nuno Limão (Georgetown University), Steve Redding (Stanford University).
11:10 AM–12:10 PM: Session 2: Uncertainty and Financial Markets, chaired by Nina Boyarchenko (FRBNY). Panelists: Valentin Haddad (UCLA Anderson), Sydney Ludvigson (New York University).
12:10 PM–1:00 PM: Lunch break.
1:00 PM–2:00 PM: Session 3: The Effect of Uncertainty on Firms and Households, chaired by Jeremy Pearce (FRBNY). Panelists: Nick Bloom (Stanford University), Stefanie Stantcheva (Harvard University).
2:05 PM–3:05 PM: Session 4: Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy, chaired by Marco Del Negro (FRBNY). Panelists: Steve Davis (Hoover Institution and Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research), Simon Gilchrist (New York University).

The event is hybrid, with most panelists in-person at the FRBNY in New York City and virtual attendance open to the public. Media can register for in-person or virtual access, and a recording will be available post-event.

Implications for Tech, Productivity, and Broader Economy

Tying into tech and tariffs, panels will likely address how policy uncertainty exacerbates supply chain vulnerabilities, especially for AI/hardware imports reliant on East Asian manufacturing. Trump's proposals, including 100% tariffs on semiconductors, threaten to undermine U.S. AI buildouts worth trillions, raising hardware costs and stalling innovation ecosystems. This could lead to slower U.S. productivity growth and reduced investment, with broader effects on allies like the UK through disrupted high-value tech collaborations. As a Fed-hosted forum, insights may influence narratives on resilience and policy responses in an era of historic uncertainty.