Empire State Manufacturing Index November 2025: Preview Shows Continued Expansion Amid Tariff Pressures, Neel Kashkari Speech on Fed Rate Cuts and Inflation Insights
- Marketing Admin
- Nov 18
- 2 min read

The Empire State Manufacturing Index, surveying about 200 manufacturers in New York State, provides an early read on national trends. For November, the median forecast hovers around 10.7, signaling continued expansion above the zero threshold but reflecting a slowdown from peaks like August's 11.9. New orders and shipments are expected to edge higher, but employment and prices paid indices may rise due to tariff-induced cost spikes on imported materials. Analysts warn that tariffs adding 5-20% to component costs could exacerbate contraction risks, leading to potential job cuts in vulnerable sectors.


Broader U.S. Manufacturing Health: Tariffs Risk Job Cuts and Slower Q4 GDP
This regional gauge often foreshadows national ISM Manufacturing PMI trends, critical amid ongoing trade tensions. With tariffs potentially inflating input costs by 5-20%, manufacturers face squeezed margins, threatening employment and contributing to Q4 GDP estimates of 1.5-2%. The sector's health is under scrutiny, as weaker activity could amplify economic divides, with Main Street bearing the brunt while investors navigate volatility.
Neel Kashkari Speech Preview: Addressing Inflation and December Rate Cut Odds

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari's remarks at 1:00 PM ET on November 14 are anticipated to focus on inflation remaining stubborn at 2.5-3%, partly due to tariff effects, and the likelihood of a December rate cut. Kashkari has recently expressed confidence in inflation trending downward but cautioned on economic slowdowns. Markets may react sharply if he hints at further easing to counter drags from trade policies, potentially stabilizing manufacturing stocks.
Market Volatility: Semiconductors and Tech Stocks in Focus Amid X Chatter
Expect swings in semiconductor stocks, as tariff hikes on imported components could raise costs by 15-20%, impacting firms reliant on global supply chains. On X, discussions amplify the "economic divide," with users debating how policies favor investors over Main Street workers facing job risks.
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Fed's Kashkari says policy in tricky position as inflation remains high - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-kashkari-says-policy-tricky-183212693.html
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Q&A with Neel Kashkari at the Minnesota Women's ... - YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNt4_AMy0ao
Fed's Kashkari says he's confident inflation is headed down - Reuters - https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/traders-bet-fed-december-rate-cut-after-inflation-data-2024-11-13/






