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FOMC October Meeting Minutes Release 2025: Insights on Rate Cuts, Inflation Stuck at 2.5-3%, and Tariff Risks Amid Market Volatility

  • Writer: Marketing Admin
    Marketing Admin
  • Nov 19
  • 3 min read

The Federal Reserve is set to release the minutes from its October 28-29, 2025, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting at 2:00 PM ET on November 19, providing detailed insights into policymakers' deliberations on economic conditions. These minutes are expected to shed light on views on persistent inflation at 2.5-3%, partly influenced by tariffs, cooling labor markets, and the potential for a December rate cut, with markets pricing in a 60% chance of a 25-basis-point (bps) easing. This "economic bombshell" could ignite extensive debate, particularly if it emphasizes tariff risks—such as adding 0.5% to core inflation, according to Fed models—thereby affecting tech borrowing costs and investments. Dovish signals might lift stocks, while hawkish tones could trigger sell-offs, amplifying volatility, especially as it overlaps with Nvidia's earnings report. X threads are poised to dissect every detail for implications on 2026 growth, forecasted at 2-2.5% amid policy uncertainty.


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FOMC Minutes Preview: Key Insights on Inflation and Labor Market

The October meeting saw the Fed maintain rates at 3.75-4.00%, following a 25 bps cut, with the statement noting progress toward the 2% inflation target but acknowledging risks from tariffs. Minutes are likely to reveal detailed discussions on inflation remaining elevated at 2.5-3%, with models suggesting tariffs could add 0.5% to core PCE inflation. Policymakers may express concerns about a cooling labor market, with surveys and data gaps from the shutdown complicating assessments. Expectations lean toward a balanced view, but any emphasis on tariff-induced pressures could heighten debates on monetary policy adjustments.


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Rate Cut Odds for December: Markets Price in 60% Chance of 25 bps Easing.

The minutes could clarify the path to a December cut, with markets currently assigning a 60% probability to a 25 bps reduction to counter economic drags. Dovish commentary on inflation risks from tariffs and softening employment might reinforce easing bets, while hawkish notes on persistent price pressures could dampen them. Fed officials have indicated a data-dependent approach, with recent speeches highlighting caution amid uncertainties.

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Tariff Risks Highlighted: Potential 0.5% Add to Core Inflation

A key focus will be on tariff discussions, with Fed models estimating an additional 0.5% to core inflation from proposed hikes, impacting borrowing costs for tech firms and overall investment. Minutes may reveal concerns that these policies are exacerbating price pressures and complicating the path to 2% inflation. This could affect sectors reliant on imports, such as tech, where higher costs delay AI hardware deployments.

Overlap with Nvidia Earnings: Amplifying Market Volatility

The release overlaps with Nvidia's Q3 earnings, heightening potential turmoil—dovish minutes could boost AI stocks, while hawkish ones exacerbate sell-offs. Markets anticipate swings, a combination that fuels debates over economic resilience.



 
 
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