top of page

Housing Starts, Building Permits, and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 2025: Gauges of Economic Resilience Amid High Rates and Tariff Pressures

  • Writer: Marketing Admin
    Marketing Admin
  • Nov 19
  • 4 min read

The U.S. Census Bureau will release October's housing starts data, expected at approximately 1.35 million annualized units, reflecting a decline amid elevated interest rates and economic headwinds. Building permits are forecasted around 1.45 million, providing early signals on future construction activity. Shortly after, the Philadelphia Fed's November manufacturing index is anticipated at about 10, indicating potential contraction risks from tariffs that could inflate construction and tech materials costs by 10-15%. These indicators tie into broader economy and tech themes, such as slowed data center builds due to rising costs, where weak numbers might ignite recession fears and calls for Fed intervention or tariff rollbacks.

ree
ree
ree

October Housing Starts: Expectations of Decline to 1.35M Annualized

Housing starts for October are projected to fall to around 1.35 million annualized units, down from previous months due to high mortgage rates persisting above 6.5% and affordability challenges. This metric tracks new residential construction commencements, serving as a leading indicator for economic activity in housing-related sectors. Single-family starts, a key component, have retreated, with August data at 890,000, signaling broader slowdowns. Tariffs exacerbating material costs by 10-15% could further dampen activity, as builders face higher expenses for steel, lumber, and imported components.


ree

Building Permits Forecast: Around 1.45M, Indicating Future Activity

Building permits, a forward-looking gauge, are expected at about 1.45 million for October, slightly up but still reflecting caution among developers. August permits stood at 1.330 million, down year-over-year, with multi-family segments declining sharply. Tariffs on construction materials could add billions in costs, with 90% impacting new homes and apartments, per estimates. This might lead to reduced permitting if costs deter projects.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index November: Expected at ~10

The Philadelphia Fed's November manufacturing index is forecasted at around 10, down from October's -12.8, suggesting mild expansion but vulnerability to contraction. This diffusion index measures regional factory conditions, with readings above zero indicating growth. Tariffs inflating materials by 10-15% pose risks, potentially leading to higher prices paid and employment declines.


ree

Broader Economy/Tech Ties: Slowed Data Center Builds Due to Cost Hikes


ree
ree

These data points interconnect with tech themes, as tariffs slow data center construction by raising costs for imported equipment and materials. AI-driven data centers face delays, with tariffs potentially adding billions and straining energy access. Weak housing and manufacturing figures could heighten recession fears, prompting discussions on Fed rate cuts or tariff adjustments to bolster growth.


 
 
Background

Let’s Partner

Economic growth & a true freedom

Supported Chains

bottom of page