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Nvidia Q3 FY2026 Earnings Report 2025: AI Chip Giant's Results Preview, Revenue Forecast $54.6B, EPS $1.23 Amid Tariff Risks and Market Volatility

  • Writer: Marketing Admin
    Marketing Admin
  • Nov 19
  • 4 min read
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Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) is scheduled to release its third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings after market close on November 19, 2025, around 4:00 PM ET, in what could be a pivotal moment for the AI sector and broader markets. Analysts project explosive growth driven by surging demand for AI chips like the Blackwell series, with revenue expected at $54.6 billion (up 80% YoY) and earnings per share (EPS) at $1.23. This report is the "something so big" event dominating discussions, as Nvidia's earnings often trigger massive stock swings—options imply an 8% post-earnings move, potentially shifting over $200 billion in market cap—and flood X, CNBC, and investor forums with analysis. Amid U.S.-China tensions, including China's push for 5nm chips and U.S. export curbs, any guidance on tariff impacts—such as 60% duties on Chinese components that raise costs and delay AI hardware like GPUs—could amplify turmoil. A miss might tank tech indices like Nasdaq by 2-5% historically, while a beat could fuel AI hype, influencing growth sectors like data centers and EVs.

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Earnings Preview: Explosive AI Demand Drives Forecasts

Nvidia's Q3 FY2026 results are anticipated to showcase continued dominance in AI semiconductors, with the Blackwell series at the forefront of hyperscaler demand for advanced computing. Consensus estimates peg revenue at $54.6 billion, a staggering 80% year-over-year increase, fueled by data center growth and AI infrastructure investments. EPS is forecasted at $1.23, reflecting robust margins despite supply challenges. The company's Q2 outlook is guided at $54.0 billion ±2%, setting high expectations for beats driven by the Blackwell ramp-up. Key metrics to watch include data center revenue, expected to surge on AI chip sales, and any updates on production delays.


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Potential Market Turmoil: Implied Volatility and Historical Swings

Options pricing implies an 8% stock move post-earnings, translating to a potential $200 billion shift in Nvidia's market cap, given its $4.5 trillion valuation. Historically, Nvidia's shares have swung 6-8% on average after reports, with implied volatility at 49% reflecting heightened uncertainty. A miss could cascade to Nasdaq declines of 2-5%, as seen in prior weak quarters, while a beat might propel AI-related stocks amid ongoing hype. The event will dominate media, with live coverage on CNBC and real-time reactions on X amplifying volatility.

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Tariff Hits on Supply Chains: 60% Duties and China's 5nm Push

Guidance will be scrutinized for tariff impacts, with potential 60% duties on Chinese components threatening supply chains for GPUs and AI hardware. U.S. export curbs have already slashed Nvidia's China revenue from 20% to low double digits, with further restrictions on Blackwell chips for U.S. firms only disrupting global alliances. China's advancing 5nm chip capabilities add pressure, potentially reducing reliance on Nvidia amid a $5.5 billion hit from prior bans. Any commentary from CEO Jensen Huang on navigating these could sway sentiment.

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Economic Implications: Data Centers, EVs, and AI Hype

A strong report could reinforce AI's role in boosting sectors like data centers—where Blackwell chips enable trillion-parameter models—and EVs, amid growing compute needs. Conversely, weaknesses tied to tariffs or curbs could signal broader slowdowns, impacting tech indices and global growth. Post-earnings analysis will dissect implications, with non-stop coverage expected to influence investor strategies into 2026.



 
 
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