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Weekend Economic Recap 2025: Labor Market Slowdown Warnings and Tariff Impacts on 2026 GDP Forecasts Amid Global Slowdown Concerns

  • Writer: Marketing Admin
    Marketing Admin
  • Nov 17
  • 4 min read
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As November 2025 unfolds, the U.S. economy stands at a critical crossroads, marked by decelerating job growth and escalating tariff threats that are reshaping growth projections for 2026. Weekend analyses highlight October's subdued labor market data—impacted by the ongoing government shutdown—with private estimates showing only 42,000 jobs added, far below the expected 150,000. Tariffs are projected to drag 2026 GDP down to 2.5-2.9%, tying into broader global slowdowns where uncertainty surges despite positive sentiment. Previews of next week's data, including business inventories, underscore potential further weaknesses, particularly in emerging sectors like electric vehicles (EVs) and batteries hit hard by U.S. policies.

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Labor Market Warnings: Decelerating Job Growth in October Amid Shutdown Data Gaps

October 2025's labor data paints a picture of slowdown, with nonfarm payrolls hampered by the record-long government shutdown, preventing official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases. Private ADP reports indicate only 42,000 jobs added, down from 79,000 in July and 22,000 in August, signaling a cooling market far below the anticipated 150,000. Revelio Labs notes a drop in nonfarm employment, exacerbating concerns over weakening consumer confidence and retail spending. This deceleration ties into broader economic drags, with job postings elevated in just over half of sectors, per Indeed data.


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Tariff Threats Weigh on 2026 GDP Forecasts: Down to 2.5-2.9%

Tariff escalations are forecasted to shave 0.4-0.54 percentage points off U.S. GDP in 2026, lowering projections to 2.5-2.9% amid higher inflation and household costs. UBS estimates an additional 0.8 percentage points to core PCE inflation, potentially pushing parts of the economy into recession. The IMF upgraded 2025 growth to 2% but notes tariffs cause less immediate disruption, while Deloitte's downside scenario sees consumer spending growth halving. Per household, tariffs equate to a $1,600 tax increase in 2026, per Tax Foundation.


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Previews of Next Week's Data: Business Inventories and More

Looking ahead to the week of November 17, key releases include Business Inventories for September (expected 0.2% MoM) on November 17, alongside New York Fed Staff Nowcast. Other highlights: Initial jobless claims (November 15), Existing home sales (October), U.S. leading indicators (October). Shutdown delays may persist, but economists anticipate these figures to reveal inventory builds amid slowing demand.

Ties to Global Slowdowns: Emerging Sectors Like EVs and Batteries Hit Harder

U.S. policies exacerbate global slowdowns, with PMI data showing expansion but geopolitical headwinds building. Tariffs on Chinese graphite (93.5%) and batteries (rising to 25% in 2025) slow EV investments, potentially reversing price drops and disrupting supply chains. EU-US deals set 15% tariffs on EVs, impacting battery manufacturers amid forecasts of 50% price drops by 2026 absent disruptions.


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